A new Quinnipiac poll has Public Advocate Bill de Blasio surging into the lead in the Democratic race for mayor. De Blasio would receive 36 percent of the primary vote, the poll found, with City Council Speaker Christine Quinn at 21 percent and Bill Thompson at 20 percent.

If no candidate receives 40 percent of the vote on primary day on Sept. 10, a runoff election will pit the two top candidates against each other. According to the poll, the only path to victory for Thompson, the candidate the UFT endorsed, is if he winds up in a runoff with Quinn. In that matchup, Thompson would net 57 percent of the vote compared to 33 percent for Quinn. But pit against de Blasio, the poll found that Thompson would lose 52-36.

But Thompson and de Blasio are tied on their supporters’ enthusiasm: 36 percent of the likely voters who said they would vote for the two candidates said they were “very enthusiastic” about their choice. Thirty-one percent of the likely voters polled said they were likely to change their mind in the coming weeks.